The MarketVector™-GammaRoad U.S. Equity Strategy Index (MVGMMA) employs a rules-based, adaptive process to allocate between U.S. equity exposure and Treasury Bills exposure based upon its fundamental, behavioral, and trend-based measures for U.S. equity market risk.
May 2026 delivered another rewarding month for U.S. equity investors as the S&P 500 Total Return Index rose +5.26%, which brought its year-to-date return to +11.27%. The MarketVector™-GammaRoad U.S. Equity Strategy Index (Bloomberg: MVGMMA Index) maintained its positioning through May at roughly 2/3rd equity exposure and 1/3rd T-Bills exposure based on its three underlying market risk measures. The strategy returned +3.63% in April, which brought its year-to-date return to +4.26%.
As the rebound rally continued through May, we observed increased attention and market narrative focusing on the potential inflationary implications stemming from the Middle East conflict. We introduced this theme in our March update, and then outlined a series of questions in our April update exploring how the persistence of these inflationary pressures might constrain the ability of monetary policy and fiscal policy to alleviate any economic tightening that ensues later this year.
The bond market has certainly taken notice that these inflationary pressures may be increasingly durable. Since the war began, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has risen 0.57% through June 5th. Growth expectations have remained fairly stable, thus it seems reasonable that inflation expectations have been the primary marginal influence for this recent rise at the long end of the curve.
Given the healthy risk appetite on display from equity investors over the last two months, itis no surprise to see an increasing chorus of the bullish cheer that “Rising rates are not a worry for the stock market.”
This month we examine the validity of this statement through the lens of longer-term market history. To read further about the reality of how equities might perform in a rising rate environment, please see our latest monthly update here.
About the Author(s):
Jordan is the architect of the MarketVector™-GammaRoad U.S. Equity Strategy Index and co-founder of GammaRoad Capital Partners, LLC. Prior to launching GammaRoad, Jordan was the Chief Investment Officer for Legacy Heritage Partners LLC, where he managed the institutional private foundation and family office portfolios. Before joining Legacy Heritage Partners LLC, Jordan was the Senior Investment Strategist for IBM Retirement Funds, where he was responsible for asset allocation and investment risk management for the U.S. pension fund. While working at IBM, Jordan was featured in CIO Magazine’s 2015 Global 40 Under 40 issue. Prior to joining IBM, Jordan was a Principal in Mercer Investments’ New York office with a focus on asset allocation, strategy implementation, and manager selection for endowments and foundations, corporate pension funds, defined contribution plans, and insurance captives. Jordan is a CFA Charterholder and holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Emory University.
For informational and advertising purposes only. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors but not necessarily those of MarketVector Indexes GmbH. Opinions are current as of the publication date and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements that do not reflect actual results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. MarketVector Indexes GmbH does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote, or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index. The inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by MarketVector Indexes GmbH to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.
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