Current Forecast of Dow Jones Industrial Average

Units: DJIA Index Values, Average of Month.  Not Seasonally Adjusted.

Solid Line = Actual Values.  Dashed Line = Predicted Values.

Historical Data and Forecast for Dow Jones Industrial Average

How This Forecast is Produced

The forecast of the indicator above is produced using three different modelling techniques: ARIMA, State Space, and Hilbert-Haung Transform (Empirical Mode Decomposition).

The forecast is made by using the three analytical techniques above to model the time series.  The models produced are then used to project the time series forward in time.  Of the three techniques, either one or a combination of the three that has performed well in the past is used for the published forecast.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, or the Dow or DJIA, is a U.S. based stock market index.  The Dow is based on the stock price of 30 stocks traded on the NYSE or NASDAQ.  The 30 stocks that make up the Dow include such well known companies as Disney, McDonald's, General Electric and Coca-Cola.

The index is created by summing the prices of the 30 stocks and dividing by a factor called the "divisor."  The divisor changes over time to account for changes to the stocks included in the list of 30 and to account for stock splits.  The index is currently owned and maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices.